MTDR

Matador ResourcesC

NYSE / Energy

At close

2026-07-21

Current thesis

The operating story improved: Q1 production beat guidance, FY26 oil and BOE guidance was lifted without increasing total CapEx, adjusted free cash flow was guided to roughly $1.1B-$1.2B, and management expects the RBL to be fully repaid; the Delaware Basin acreage add and Hugh Brinson takeaway could extend inventory and improve gas realizations.

Posture

Mixed

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

What can break

GAAP earnings remain volatile because derivative marks and non-recurring items can overwhelm operating performance in any given quarter.

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $60.14 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $45.00

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-21

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-20 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-21 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-21

Supporting evidence

What

Grade C · Mixed

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $70.14

Why

Momentum38 · Δ7d +17.2

Value57 · Δ7d +0.3

Sentiment59 · Δ7d -4.4

So what

Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+17.2

Δ21d

+7.1

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+0.3

Δ21d

0.0

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-4.4

Δ21d

-12.3

Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 37.9 / Value 57.1 / Sentiment 58.5

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-20

Market Cap

$6.64B

Beta

1.14

Shares Out

124.18M

P/E (TTM)

6.6

P/S (TTM)

1.35

P/FCF (TTM)

7.80

Rev YoY

-6.4%

EPS YoY

-115.2%

Gross Margin

+38.9%

Op Margin

+35.2%

Net Debt

$3.47B

Current Ratio

0.73

As of 2026-07-21 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology