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MTB

M&T BankC
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Loan and deposit growth, fourth-quarter net interest income guidance, and continued repurchases could support earnings and valuation if credit remains contained. Third-quarter GAAP EPS exceeded the $4.93 consensus shown by TipRanks, though consensus figures differ across providers.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.
What can break
Estimated CET1 declined to 10.16%; further loan growth and repurchases narrow the cushion to the lower end of management's stated fourth-quarter operating range. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-16] M&T earnings presentation
Momentum
37
Value
56
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $235.00 · Bull $260.00 · Bear $185.00Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $245.45
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -3.6
Value56 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Estimated CET1 declined to 10.16%; further loan growth and repurchases narrow the cushion to the lower end of management's stated fourth-quarter operating range. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-16] M&T earnings presentation
  • • Net charge-offs increased to 0.35% of average loans from 0.23%, nonaccrual loans rose to 0.90% from 0.85%, and criticized commercial loans increased $245 million sequentially. M&T earnings presentation
  • • Margin compression, a $44 million sequential expense increase, higher provision and charge-offs, and a lower CET1 ratio temper the beat.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-16

Third-quarter beat meets margin and cost pressure

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
37
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
+6.1
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-16.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 36.9 / Value 56.0 / Sentiment 59.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$260.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$32.36B
Beta
0.59
Shares Out
144.42M
P/E (TTM)
12.9
P/S (TTM)
3.35
P/FCF (TTM)
10.93
Rev YoY
+1.0%
EPS YoY
+25.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+28.8%
Net Debt
$12.01B
Current Ratio
0.33
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data