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MTB

M&T BankC
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 delivered substantial sequential earnings improvement, loan growth across categories, stable NIM, low reported net charge-offs, and continued share repurchases. Sustained loan growth and margin stability could support a modest rerating [#IR-2026-07-15].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-14.
What can break
A clear post-print analyst revision trend is unavailable, limiting confidence in the earnings follow-through thesis.
Momentum
46
Value
53
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $255.00 · Bull $275.00 · Bear $225.00Analysis 2026-07-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $260.25
Why
Momentum46 · Δ7d +2.2
Value53 · Δ7d -6.2
Sentiment67 · Δ7d -2.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-14.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A clear post-print analyst revision trend is unavailable, limiting confidence in the earnings follow-through thesis.
  • • Credit performance could deteriorate despite currently low reported net charge-offs and nonaccrual loans.
  • • NIM was unchanged sequentially, estimated CET1 declined, and the checked sources do not establish a clear post-print analyst target, rating, or estimate-revision trend.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-15

July 15 Q2 release showed stronger earnings and loan growth

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
46
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
-14.5
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.2
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
+1.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 45.8 / Value 52.7 / Sentiment 67.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$275.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$255.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$36.52B
Beta
0.59
Shares Out
144.42M
P/E (TTM)
12.9
P/S (TTM)
3.35
P/FCF (TTM)
10.93
Rev YoY
+1.0%
EPS YoY
+25.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+28.8%
Net Debt
$12.01B
Current Ratio
0.33
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data