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MRTN

Marten TransportC
Nasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2’s sequential earnings improvement, management-reported pricing gains and a debt-free balance sheet offer a path to better profitability if later results confirm durable margin gains [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Customer pricing gains may not offset freight-volume weakness, fuel exposure and operating costs; management’s recovery outlook remains forward-looking [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23].
Momentum
27
Value
50
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $12.75 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $17.00
Why
Momentum27 · Δ7d -4.2
Value50 · Δ7d +1.4
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -5.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bearish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Customer pricing gains may not offset freight-volume weakness, fuel exposure and operating costs; management’s recovery outlook remains forward-looking [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23].
  • • Q2 net-of-fuel operating ratio worsened year over year despite sequential profit improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23].
  • • Q2 operating income fell to $6.9 million from $9.7 million year over year, and the operating ratio excluding fuel surcharges deteriorated by 1.1 percentage points.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-22

Verify Q3 results and test whether the Q2 recovery persisted

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
27
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-4.5
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+1.8
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.8
Δ21d
-9.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 26.9 / Value 49.9 / Sentiment 63.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$961.97M
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
81.66M
P/E (TTM)
51.3
P/S (TTM)
1.10
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-51.83
Rev YoY
-2.8%
EPS YoY
-25.9%
Gross Margin
+5.2%
Op Margin
+0.9%
Net Debt
-$47.83M
Current Ratio
2.50
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data