B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
+5.6% vs current
MPLT
MapLight TherapeuticsCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
At close
2026-07-20
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
-22.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
-41.7% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-06-25
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+24.4
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source evidence quality is strong because the packet includes usable SEC-backed earnings/business-update excerpts, but the thesis is still a cautious monitoring view because recent trusted-news flow is sparse, social context is absent, and the deterministic prior is negative into a binary data window. Price reaction context and post-print analyst revisions are unavailable in the packet, so missing reaction data should not be treated as positive evidence.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-06-25
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-15eventPhase 2 ZEPHYR schizophrenia topline data due by mid-August 2026High impact
The main near-term value driver is ML-007C-MA Phase 2 ZEPHYR topline data after the company completed enrollment of 307 participants and guided to results by mid-August 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-05-14].
2026-08-15eventPhase 2 IRIS autism topline data due by mid-August 2026High impact
ML-004 Phase 2 IRIS has completed last patient visit, with management guiding to topline results by mid-August 2026, creating a second binary readout close to the ZEPHYR window [#SEC-8K-2026-05-14].
2026-12-31catalystRunway supports execution into 2027 but leaves the stock primarily data-drivenHigh impact
MapLight reported $395.2 million of cash, cash equivalents and investments at March 31, 2026 and said this should fund operations through 2027, which reduces immediate financing pressure but does not remove clinical-readout risk [#SEC-8K-2026-05-14].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-06-25 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology