B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MPLT
MapLight TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
ZEPHYR provides meaningful clinical validation for the BID regimen, including PANSS, cognition, and tolerability signals, while VISTA and a confirmatory schizophrenia study preserve substantial optionality.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
Clinical, regulatory, execution, and future dilution risks remain material despite reported funding through 2027.
Momentum
1
Value
41
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.00 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $5.00Analysis 2026-07-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $25.75
Why
Momentum1 · Δ7d -0.3
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +0.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Clinical, regulatory, execution, and future dilution risks remain material despite reported funding through 2027.
- • Coverage is low and post-readout analyst revisions or target changes are unavailable.
- • The QD regimen missed its primary endpoint, ZEPHYR still requires replication and regulatory alignment, and IRIS failed its primary endpoint.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-22
IRIS primary-endpoint miss limits ASD optionality
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
1
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.1
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-5.2
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-20.1
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 1.2 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 60.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$479.24M
Beta
-
Shares Out
42.62M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.1
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.89
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+83.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$299.3M
Current Ratio
16.52
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data