B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MPLT
MapLight TherapeuticsCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
ZEPHYR’s twice-daily arm met its primary schizophrenia endpoint and showed a prespecified cognition signal. A favorable FDA discussion, successful Phase 3 replication and positive VISTA data could materially increase program value [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
FDA feedback, trial timing and future financing needs could change the development plan.
Momentum
3
Value
41
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $5.50Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $25.75
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d +0.6
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment80 · Δ7d -7.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -7.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FDA feedback, trial timing and future financing needs could change the development plan.
- • IRIS missed its primary social-communication endpoint; the adolescent irritability finding is a subgroup result [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
- • The once-daily ZEPHYR arm missed statistical significance on the primary endpoint, IRIS missed its primary endpoint, and the investment case increasingly depends on one lead asset.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-29
FDA End-of-Phase 2 discussion for ML-007C-MA
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
3
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-0.6
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
80
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.9
Δ21d
+15.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 2.9 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 79.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$442.94M
Beta
-
Shares Out
55.58M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.2
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.05
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+83.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$299.3M
Current Ratio
16.52
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data