B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MPAA
Motorcar Parts of AmericaBNasdaq / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q1 weakness was largely timing-related, guidance was reaffirmed, and brake capacity, Centric Parts, and new-business commitments could drive a second-half recovery. The company also reported adjusted gross margin of 20.2%, supporting a potential recovery if FX and order timing normalize.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.
What can break
Centric Parts integration, relaunch, and new-business ramp timing remain uncertain.
Momentum
11
Value
53
Sentiment
81
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.50 · Bull $17.50 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.00
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d -1.5
Value53 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment81 · Δ7d +5.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Centric Parts integration, relaunch, and new-business ramp timing remain uncertain.
- • Customer order timing and competitor inventory liquidation may delay the expected recovery.
- • The print showed a sharp sales decline, lower reported margins, a $13.4 million net loss, and continued sensitivity to customer ordering, competitor inventory liquidation, relocation execution, FX, and leverage.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-10
Post-earnings guidance reaffirmation and order-timing recovery
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
11
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-9.8
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-14.5
Sentiment
81
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
+2.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 11.2 / Value 53.3 / Sentiment 80.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$226.25M
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
18.93M
P/E (TTM)
107.3
P/S (TTM)
0.31
P/FCF (TTM)
3.51
Rev YoY
-10.8%
EPS YoY
-564.5%
Gross Margin
+19.9%
Op Margin
+6.1%
Net Debt
$187.4M
Current Ratio
1.44
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data