B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MPAA
Motorcar Parts of AmericaBNasdaq / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidance, more than $100 million of targeted additional annualized sales, the Centric relaunch, and higher brake-capacity utilization create meaningful operating leverage if delayed business converts. The $10.65 anchor is also below the company's fiscal-Q1 repurchase average of $14.98, though that does not establish intrinsic value.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-09 · BMO.
What can break
An SVP reported an open-market sale of 14,074 shares and no remaining holdings on the filing, while the CEO transaction was tax withholding rather than an open-market sale. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-24]
Momentum
31
Value
53
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $17.00 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-09-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-09 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-03 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-03 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-11-03
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-03
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-03. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.00
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d +13.8
Value53 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment73 · Δ7d -9.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-09 · BMO.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • An SVP reported an open-market sale of 14,074 shares and no remaining holdings on the filing, while the CEO transaction was tax withholding rather than an open-market sale. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-24]
- • Centric brand relaunch benefits and brake-capacity margin accretion remain unquantified and execution-dependent.
- • Fiscal Q1 sales declined 10.8%, reported gross margin fell to 16.2%, operating cash flow used $11.3 million, and foreign exchange reduced gross margin by roughly $3.5 million.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-09 · BMO
Order-timing recovery and new-business ramp
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
31
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.8
Δ21d
+24.3
Value
53
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
73
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.3
Δ21d
-4.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 31.2 / Value 52.9 / Sentiment 73.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-11-03
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-03
Market Cap
$196.72M
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
18.93M
P/E (TTM)
107.3
P/S (TTM)
0.31
P/FCF (TTM)
3.51
Rev YoY
-10.8%
EPS YoY
-564.5%
Gross Margin
+19.9%
Op Margin
+6.1%
Net Debt
$187.4M
Current Ratio
1.44
As of 2026-11-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data