B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MOS
MosaicBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Potash adjusted EBITDA remained stable at $278 million, while capex reduction, cost actions, and potential sulfur normalization could improve cash generation and restore phosphate production.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
What can break
A $1 billion term loan was established to refinance and extend short-term commercial paper maturities.
Momentum
73
Value
56
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $27.14 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $26.29
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d +21.6
Value56 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d -1.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A $1 billion term loan was established to refinance and extend short-term commercial paper maturities.
- • Lower sales volumes and higher raw-material costs could keep adjusted EBITDA below prior-year levels.
- • Adjusted EBITDA declined materially year over year, Phosphate and Mosaic Fertilizantes remained pressured, and sulfur availability, raw-material costs, and weak cash flow could delay recovery.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 2026 results confirmed mixed operating performance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
73
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+21.6
Δ21d
+40.1
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
-11.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 73.2 / Value 56.4 / Sentiment 65.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.14
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.75B
Beta
0.97
Shares Out
317.9M
P/E (TTM)
6.5
P/S (TTM)
0.66
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.50
Rev YoY
-6.0%
EPS YoY
-166.6%
Gross Margin
+11.0%
Op Margin
+6.8%
Net Debt
$5.48B
Current Ratio
1.34
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data