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MOS

MosaicC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Cost cuts, lower capital spending and a recovery in phosphate production could improve cash generation from the depressed Q2 level. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
What can break
Executive Vice President–Operations Swager is scheduled to resign from that role effective December 1, 2026, and remain a senior adviser until retirement in Q2 2027. [#8-K-2026-09-25]
Momentum
10
Value
57
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $20.00 · Bull $26.00 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2026-10-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $25.49
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d +0.7
Value57 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Executive Vice President–Operations Swager is scheduled to resign from that role effective December 1, 2026, and remain a senior adviser until retirement in Q2 2027. [#8-K-2026-09-25]
  • • Q2 net loss was $273 million, including notable items, while adjusted EBITDA fell year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • Sulfur constraints, reduced phosphate output and lower Q2 adjusted EBITDA leave recovery uncertain; potential Belarus supply developments add potash-price risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Lower capital spending and financial flexibility

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-45.2
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
-30.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 9.7 / Value 56.5 / Sentiment 62.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
40%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$5.63B
Beta
0.97
Shares Out
317.9M
P/E (TTM)
6.5
P/S (TTM)
0.66
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.59
Rev YoY
-6.0%
EPS YoY
-166.6%
Gross Margin
+11.0%
Op Margin
+6.8%
Net Debt
$5.48B
Current Ratio
1.34
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data