B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$230.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MOH
Molina HealthcareCNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The guidance increase, Medicaid performance in line with expectations, better-than-expected Medicare MCR, operating discipline, and $788 million of first-half operating cash flow support stabilization and possible 2027 recovery [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Elevated medical-cost ratios, especially in Marketplace, could offset Medicaid improvement.
Momentum
28
Value
65
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $205.00 · Bull $230.00 · Bear $165.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $209.24
Why
Momentum28 · Δ7d -15.5
Value65 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +8.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Elevated medical-cost ratios, especially in Marketplace, could offset Medicaid improvement.
- • Membership contraction and lower premium revenue could persist.
- • Premium revenue declined 6%, membership fell materially, consolidated MCR increased to 92.2% from 90.4%, and Marketplace MCR exceeded expectations.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-22
Q2 results raised FY2026 earnings guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
28
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.5
Δ21d
+2.0
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
+3.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 28.5 / Value 64.7 / Sentiment 62.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.6B
Beta
0.49
Shares Out
52.2M
P/E (TTM)
11.3
P/S (TTM)
0.21
P/FCF (TTM)
24.98
Rev YoY
-4.8%
EPS YoY
-75.4%
Gross Margin
+13.9%
Op Margin
+0.7%
Net Debt
-$227M
Current Ratio
1.68
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data