B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$260.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MOH
Molina HealthcareBNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The modest Q3 consensus beat, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and stronger draft Medicaid rates support a possible earnings recovery if medical-cost trend stabilizes. This is a conditional case, not a confirmed margin inflection [#8-K-2026-10-21] company earnings exhibit.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
Consolidated Q3 medical cost ratio rose to 92.9% from 92.6% a year earlier, leaving little margin for further cost pressure [#8-K-2026-10-21] company earnings exhibit.
Momentum
65
Value
64
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $215.00 · Bull $260.00 · Bear $160.00Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $219.65
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d -4.9
Value64 · Δ7d +1.1
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +7.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Consolidated Q3 medical cost ratio rose to 92.9% from 92.6% a year earlier, leaving little margin for further cost pressure [#8-K-2026-10-21] company earnings exhibit.
- • Draft 2027 rate increases may not translate into better margins if utilization, acuity, or disenrollment develops unfavorably.
- • Adjusted Q3 earnings fell sharply year over year, membership declined, and the Florida ramp burdens Q4.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-23
Q3 beat met a weaker forward outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
65
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.9
Δ21d
+7.9
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
-9.8
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 64.8 / Value 64.4 / Sentiment 54.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$215.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$10.41B
Beta
0.49
Shares Out
52.2M
P/E (TTM)
11.3
P/S (TTM)
0.21
P/FCF (TTM)
24.98
Rev YoY
-4.8%
EPS YoY
-75.4%
Gross Margin
+13.9%
Op Margin
+0.7%
Net Debt
-$227M
Current Ratio
1.68
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data