B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MNRO
MonroCNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The structured prior is modestly positive, and a Q2 reversal in continuing-store sales and adjusted margin could support a recovery from the $13.23 October 23 anchor. This remains conditional on the October 29 results, not an established turnaround.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Gross margin fell 50 basis points, principally because occupancy costs increased as a share of sales. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Momentum
63
Value
47
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.00 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.75
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d -11.7
Value47 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Gross margin fell 50 basis points, principally because occupancy costs increased as a share of sales. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Lower GAAP operating expenses benefited substantially from comparisons involving prior-year store-closing and consultant costs, while adjusted operating income still declined. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Fiscal Q1's 1.7% comparable-store-sales decline, 50-basis-point gross-margin contraction and sharp adjusted operating-income decline leave meaningful downside if weak categories or occupancy pressure persist.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · BMO
Fiscal Q2 2027 earnings on October 29
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.7
Δ21d
-3.3
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-38.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 63.5 / Value 47.1 / Sentiment 53.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$442.7M
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
31.26M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
514.9
P/S (TTM)
0.49
P/FCF (TTM)
43.20
Rev YoY
-4.6%
EPS YoY
-70.5%
Gross Margin
+34.9%
Op Margin
+2.3%
Net Debt
$471.27M
Current Ratio
0.49
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data