B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MNRO
MonroCNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Improving inspection-led repair orders and value-tier tire execution could lift continuing-store sales and restore adjusted operating margin. This is a conditional recovery case, not an established trend.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Adjusted operating income deteriorated despite lower closure and consultant costs; higher marketing and front-shop labor costs may constrain recovery. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Momentum
70
Value
48
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.00 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.00
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d -9.9
Value48 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted operating income deteriorated despite lower closure and consultant costs; higher marketing and front-shop labor costs may constrain recovery. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Fiscal Q1 gross margin fell 50 basis points as occupancy costs rose relative to sales. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Fiscal Q1 sales fell 4.6% to $287.1 million, comparable-store sales fell 1.7%, and adjusted operating income declined to $2.2 million from $14.0 million.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · BMO
Continuing-store sales and service-mix test
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
70
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-9.9
Δ21d
-0.2
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
-34.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 69.9 / Value 47.8 / Sentiment 56.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$413.62M
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
31.26M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
481.1
P/S (TTM)
0.49
P/FCF (TTM)
43.20
Rev YoY
-4.6%
EPS YoY
-70.5%
Gross Margin
+34.9%
Op Margin
+2.3%
Net Debt
$471.27M
Current Ratio
0.49
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data