B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
MNRO
MonroBNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case rests on margin expansion from lower input costs, successful capital allocation, and steady same-store sales growth leading to multiple expansion.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Capital allocation missteps or unexpected dilution
Momentum
12
Value
49
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $19.00 · Bull $25.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-01-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.00
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d +2.4
Value49 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital allocation missteps or unexpected dilution
- • Persistent parts/labor inflation
- • Bear case assumes persistent cost pressure, weaker consumer traffic, or disappointing execution that compresses multiples and lowers earnings.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-29
Quarterly earnings (Q4/2025) release
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
+8.9
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-6.6
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 12.0 / Value 48.8 / Sentiment 75.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$361.41M
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
31.26M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
420.4
P/S (TTM)
0.49
P/FCF (TTM)
43.20
Rev YoY
-4.6%
EPS YoY
-70.5%
Gross Margin
+34.9%
Op Margin
+2.3%
Net Debt
$471.27M
Current Ratio
0.49
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data