B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MKTX
MarketAxessCNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The ICE transaction provides a potentially important strategic valuation anchor, while record services revenue and strong block and portfolio-trading growth show progress in targeted channels.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Commission revenue declined 3%, with U.S. credit commission revenue down 9%. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
80
Value
52
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $160.00 · Bull $175.00 · Bear $140.00Analysis 2026-08-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $158.00
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d -5.2
Value52 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -1.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bearish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Commission revenue declined 3%, with U.S. credit commission revenue down 9%. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • Lower market volatility or elevated new issuance could pressure trading economics and near-term revenue comparability.
- • Core commission revenue and U.S.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-02
Declared quarterly dividend
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
80
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.2
Δ21d
-16.3
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-8.4
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
-0.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 79.9 / Value 51.7 / Sentiment 61.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-19. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.72B
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
35.19M
P/E (TTM)
30.7
P/S (TTM)
7.98
P/FCF (TTM)
28.98
Rev YoY
-2.7%
EPS YoY
+1.3%
Gross Margin
+79.7%
Op Margin
+40.3%
Net Debt
-$291.92M
Current Ratio
1.71
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data