MH

McGraw HillA

NYSE / Consumer Services

Quote time unavailable

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

20%

Probability

Target price

$17.50

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

55%

Probability

Target price

$14.10

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$10.80

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-10-18

AI commentary

Company-source tone is constructive on fiscal Q1 operations, but the November 5 peak-season test and the refinancing cost remain unresolved. The packet does not establish a verified price reaction to the October refinancing or post-event analyst revisions. Zero-valued social, options, short-interest, and employee fields denote unavailable measurements, not neutral readings.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-18

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-11-05eventFiscal Q2 results on November 5Medium impact

McGraw Hill has scheduled results for its September quarter on November 5. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 2.6% year over year, recurring revenue rose 9.8%, and management described above-target K–12 literacy-program win rates. The decision-relevant test is whether those indicators converted into peak-selling-season revenue and margins; no Q2 result is yet available. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-10-05] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13] Company announcement

2026-11-05catalystDeleveraging versus refinancing costMedium impact

The company announced a $50 million term-loan principal prepayment on October 1. Separately, its October 9 refinancing replaced outstanding 5.750% secured notes due 2028 with $400 million of 8.000% secured notes due 2033. Longer maturities help, but the higher note coupon makes subsequent interest expense and net leverage important checks; refinancing itself is not debt reduction. [#8-K-2026-10-09] SEC filing Company debt-reduction announcement

2027-03-31catalystK–12 adoption conversionHigh impact

Management reported above-target win rates for a new K–12 English-language-arts program and characterized curriculum adoption as an early-stage, multiyear cycle. Sustained district purchases and recognized revenue remain to be demonstrated. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13] SEC earnings exhibit

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-10-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology