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MH

McGraw HillA
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Recurring and digital growth, higher-education gains, K–12 adoption wins, and the separate $50 million debt prepayment could support earnings growth and gradual deleveraging if peak-season results confirm management's indicators. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13] Company debt-reduction announcement
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
Curriculum adoption timing and district purchasing can make near-term results uneven.
Momentum
87
Value
66
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.10 · Bull $17.50 · Bear $10.80Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.92
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +3.6
Value66 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment50 · Δ7d -6.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Curriculum adoption timing and district purchasing can make near-term results uneven.
  • • Peak-selling-season K–12 wins and higher-education gains may not convert into expected revenue or margins.
  • • K–12 wins may convert more slowly than expected, while the replacement secured notes carry a higher coupon.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05

Fiscal Q2 results on November 5

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
87
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+5.3
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.5
Δ21d
-29.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 86.8 / Value 66.2 / Sentiment 50.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$14.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.8B
Beta
-
Shares Out
191.31M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
75.9
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
8.31
Rev YoY
+2.6%
EPS YoY
+9980.0%
Gross Margin
+64.8%
Op Margin
+16.4%
Net Debt
$2.4B
Current Ratio
0.71
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data