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MH

McGraw HillA
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q1 print supports a cautiously constructive view: recurring and digital revenue growth, margin expansion, positive earnings, RPO visibility, K-12 adoption opportunities, and continued deleveraging provide a credible operating foundation.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.2.
What can break
AI and agentic-learning initiatives may require investment before producing meaningful incremental monetization.
Momentum
88
Value
68
Sentiment
84
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.00 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.92
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -5.7
Value68 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment84 · Δ7d -3.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI and agentic-learning initiatives may require investment before producing meaningful incremental monetization.
  • • Debt reduction and the 2.0-2.5x net-leverage objective remain dependent on cash generation and execution.
  • • The key risks are execution through the seasonal K-12 selling period, uncertain AI monetization, limited independent post-print validation, and the possibility that strong Q1 commentary is already reflected in the share price.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-13

Q1 FY2027 operating momentum

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.7
Δ21d
+5.9
Value
68
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+10.7
Sentiment
84
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.2
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 88.1 / Value 67.9 / Sentiment 83.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.44B
Beta
-
Shares Out
191.31M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
66.3
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
7.26
Rev YoY
+2.6%
EPS YoY
+9980.0%
Gross Margin
+64.8%
Op Margin
+16.4%
Net Debt
$2.4B
Current Ratio
0.71
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data