B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$145.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MGRC
McGrath RentCorpBNasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Rental operations are growing, Mobile Modular utilization has begun to improve, TRS-RenTelco is benefiting from data-center demand, and management raised guidance midpoints while increasing planned capex. If delayed second-half projects convert and fleet investment earns attractive returns, earnings momentum can improve.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.8.
What can break
Education bookings were weaker than the prior year and are not expected to be a near-term growth driver. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-30]
Momentum
52
Value
55
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $125.00 · Bull $145.40 · Bear $100.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $145.40
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d -0.7
Value55 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment75 · Δ7d +6.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Education bookings were weaker than the prior year and are not expected to be a near-term growth driver. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-30]
- • FY2026 guidance ranges narrowed, leaving less room for execution misses even though the midpoints increased. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Q2 revenue and EPS were below the targeted consensus reference, total revenue and EBITDA declined, and guidance ranges narrowed despite higher midpoints.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-30
Second-half modular execution and delayed-project conversion
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
52
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-19.4
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+2.2
Sentiment
75
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.8
Δ21d
+11.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 52.2 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 75.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.96B
Beta
0.51
Shares Out
24.43M
P/E (TTM)
18.1
P/S (TTM)
2.83
P/FCF (TTM)
238.48
Rev YoY
-6.2%
EPS YoY
-5.9%
Gross Margin
+46.3%
Op Margin
+25.3%
Net Debt
$527.5M
Current Ratio
1.27
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data