B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MGPI
MGP IngredientsBNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 results were ahead of management expectations, guidance was reaffirmed, premium brands showed momentum, Ingredient Solutions sales grew, and cost initiatives may improve earnings conversion. The positive deterministic return prior supports a cautiously constructive view.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +19.1.
What can break
Consolidated sales, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS declined year over year in Q2. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Momentum
21
Value
49
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.00 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-09-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.80
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +0.1
Value49 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +19.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +19.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Consolidated sales, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS declined year over year in Q2. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Expected brown-goods declines in Distilling Solutions and a customer bankruptcy-related credit-loss provision create execution and demand risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • The Q2 print still showed 15% lower sales, 23% lower adjusted EBITDA, lower gross margin, expected brown-goods declines, waste-starch cost pressure, a customer-bankruptcy credit-loss provision, and 3.5x net-debt leverage versus 1.8x a year earlier.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-07
FY2026 guidance and Q3 execution checkpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-11.4
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-18.2
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+19.1
Δ21d
+24.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 20.9 / Value 49.2 / Sentiment 76.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-10. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$383.1M
Beta
0.41
Shares Out
21.41M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.6
P/S (TTM)
0.88
P/FCF (TTM)
9.85
Rev YoY
-14.5%
EPS YoY
-17.2%
Gross Margin
+35.5%
Op Margin
+13.2%
Net Debt
$248.15M
Current Ratio
6.99
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data