B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MGPI
MGP IngredientsCNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS exceeded management expectations, FY2026 guidance was reaffirmed, premium brands retained momentum, and Ingredient Solutions grew despite a difficult spirits backdrop. Successful conversion of these drivers plus cost savings could produce meaningful upside from the depressed price.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
A customer bankruptcy already increased the credit-loss provision, highlighting counterparty risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Momentum
48
Value
50
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-09-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $26.40
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d +31.2
Value50 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -5.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A customer bankruptcy already increased the credit-loss provision, highlighting counterparty risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Continued brown-goods weakness could keep Distilling Solutions sales and utilization under pressure. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
- • Q2 sales fell 15%, adjusted EBITDA declined 23%, consolidated gross margin contracted about 270 basis points, and net leverage rose to 3.5x from 1.8x.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28 · BMO
Q3 execution and FY2026 guidance checkpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+31.2
Δ21d
+41.4
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.2
Δ21d
-35.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 48.0 / Value 49.6 / Sentiment 60.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$328.06M
Beta
0.41
Shares Out
21.41M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.1
P/S (TTM)
0.88
P/FCF (TTM)
9.85
Rev YoY
-14.5%
EPS YoY
-17.2%
Gross Margin
+35.5%
Op Margin
+13.2%
Net Debt
$248.15M
Current Ratio
6.99
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data