B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MGPI
MGP IngredientsANasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The company is showing early stabilization in premium branded spirits and Ingredient Solutions, with Q2 adjusted EBITDA and EPS ahead of internal expectations and full-year guidance reaffirmed. If brand momentum, operational reliability, and cost initiatives persist, earnings could recover from the current depressed base.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.7.
What can break
A reported open-market sale by a 10% owner is a secondary negative signal, but does not establish an operating trend. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-28]
Momentum
20
Value
49
Sentiment
97
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $19.50 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $13.50Analysis 2026-08-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.80
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d -5.3
Value49 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment97 · Δ7d +9.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A reported open-market sale by a 10% owner is a secondary negative signal, but does not establish an operating trend. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-28]
- • Consolidated gross margin fell to 37.4% from 40.1%, partly due to higher waste-starch stream costs.
- • Sales, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS all declined year over year in Q2.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-07
Q2 execution with FY2026 guidance reaffirmed
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
20
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-5.3
Δ21d
-13.9
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-18.2
Sentiment
97
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.7
Δ21d
+13.1
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 19.9 / Value 49.2 / Sentiment 96.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$19.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$383.1M
Beta
0.41
Shares Out
21.41M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.6
P/S (TTM)
0.88
P/FCF (TTM)
9.85
Rev YoY
-14.5%
EPS YoY
-17.2%
Gross Margin
+35.5%
Op Margin
+13.2%
Net Debt
$248.15M
Current Ratio
6.99
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data