RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

MFC

Manulife FinancialC
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The Q1 print kept the medium-term thesis intact: Asia grew strongly, new business CSM rose across insurance segments, and management commentary in the stored earnings context reiterated the 18%+ core ROE goal for 2027 [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-15]. If Asia momentum and shareholder returns persist, the market can look through the mixed WAM and Canada noise.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Canada group insurance was hurt by higher long-term disability claims and lower recoveries in long-term disability business.
Momentum
52
Value
50
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $40.80 · Bull $46.00 · Bear $31.50Analysis 2026-06-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $47.04
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d -3.6
Value50 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Canada group insurance was hurt by higher long-term disability claims and lower recoveries in long-term disability business.
  • • Global WAM net outflows of C$4.4 billion could keep fee growth uneven if redemptions persist.
  • • The main pushback is execution: Global WAM posted C$4.4 billion of net outflows, Canada group insurance had unfavorable experience from higher long-term disability claims and expenses, U.S.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Post-Q1 earnings digestion remains mixed

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
52
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
-7.4
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
+0.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 52.2 / Value 49.7 / Sentiment 57.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$40.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$31.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$73.44B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
1.66B
P/E (TTM)
16.1
P/S (TTM)
2.19
P/FCF (TTM)
3.11
Rev YoY
+28.2%
EPS YoY
+22.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+15.2%
Net Debt
-$172.9M
Current Ratio
38.97
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data