B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MFA
MFA FinancialBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
At the $7.85 September 30 anchor, MFA traded at about 0.62 times its Q2 $12.71 GAAP book value per share. If declining delinquencies, Lima One growth and securitization benefits translate into distributable earnings with fewer realized credit losses, some discount could close.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
At June 30, 60-plus-day delinquency was 13.7% for single-family transitional loans and 24.4% for multifamily transitional loans; the latter portfolio remained in wind-down. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
14
Value
63
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.40 · Bull $9.50 · Bear $5.80Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.25
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d -2.6
Value63 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -0.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • At June 30, 60-plus-day delinquency was 13.7% for single-family transitional loans and 24.4% for multifamily transitional loans; the latter portfolio remained in wind-down. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • Mortgage prepayments, credit defaults, hedging effectiveness and borrowing availability are identified risks in the SEC-filed earnings presentation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • Q2 distributable earnings of $0.12 per share versus $0.35 before realized credit losses expose the gap between portfolio activity and realized shareholder earnings.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-15
Credit-loss and earnings-quality test
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
14
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.6
Δ21d
-19.0
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+0.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 13.7 / Value 63.1 / Sentiment 62.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$673.25M
Beta
1.66
Shares Out
101.09M
P/E (TTM)
11.1
P/S (TTM)
1.21
P/FCF (TTM)
41.45
Rev YoY
+47.9%
EPS YoY
+60.1%
Gross Margin
+95.5%
Op Margin
+80.3%
Net Debt
$10.61B
Current Ratio
2.66
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data