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MEC

Mayville EngineeringC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 sales rose 23.2% year over year to $163.0 million, and MEC reported $40 million of new data-center and critical-power awards. Higher utilization and conversion of its opportunity pipeline could improve margins.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.9.
What can break
A qualified opportunity pipeline does not guarantee awards, revenue timing or acceptable program margins.
Momentum
3
Value
47
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.00 · Bull $23.00 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $37.00
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d -0.5
Value47 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +10.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A qualified opportunity pipeline does not guarantee awards, revenue timing or acceptable program margins.
  • • Commercial-vehicle recovery and data-center program ramps may fall short of management's expectations.
  • • Q2 free cash flow was negative $6.6 million, net debt was 2.9 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, and program launch costs constrained profitability.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-15

Second-half margin and cash-flow test

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
3
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-2.3
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+2.0
Sentiment
70
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.9
Δ21d
+23.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 3.3 / Value 47.1 / Sentiment 70.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$324.11M
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
25.5M
P/E (TTM)
31.5
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
6.97
Rev YoY
+23.2%
EPS YoY
+72.0%
Gross Margin
+7.1%
Op Margin
-1.2%
Net Debt
$237.6M
Current Ratio
1.70
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data