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MDB

MongoDBA
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 delivered accelerating revenue growth, strong Atlas and Enterprise Advanced performance, substantial operating leverage, and a second consecutive increase to FY2027 guidance. The deterministic prior is positive, and the packet's $470.38 median analyst target is about 26% above the $373.87 anchor, although the target count and post-print revisions are unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
What can break
Atlas growth falls short of the approximately 27% full-year expectation after the Q2 results raised the execution bar.
Momentum
86
Value
41
Sentiment
90
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $445.00 · Bull $520.00 · Bear $300.00Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $470.69
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d -5.3
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment90 · Δ7d +5.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Atlas growth falls short of the approximately 27% full-year expectation after the Q2 results raised the execution bar.
  • • Director Dwight Merriman disclosed approximately $7.3 million of open-market stock sales across August 14 and August 17; the filings establish the transactions but not their motivation [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-18].
  • • The sharp post-earnings decline despite a beat indicates that expectations for Atlas growth were already demanding.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-01

Q2 beat and raised FY2027 outlook reset expectations

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-5.3
Δ21d
-7.5
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
90
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
+44.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 85.9 / Value 40.8 / Sentiment 89.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$520.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$445.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$300.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$35.29B
Beta
1.39
Shares Out
80.43M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-501.0
P/S (TTM)
14.78
P/FCF (TTM)
98.91
Rev YoY
+25.2%
EPS YoY
-111.7%
Gross Margin
+71.7%
Op Margin
-4.2%
Net Debt
-$2.32B
Current Ratio
4.74
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data