B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$430.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MDB
MongoDBFNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Strong Q2 Atlas and Enterprise Advanced growth, higher FY2027 guidance, and improved profitability support the operating thesis. Ittycheria's prior tenure may help preserve continuity.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
A permanent CEO has not been appointed; an extended search or strategic disruption could weaken execution. [#IR-2026-09-28]
Momentum
29
Value
41
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $350.00 · Bull $430.00 · Bear $250.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $459.00
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d -7.2
Value41 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment41 · Δ7d -11.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A permanent CEO has not been appointed; an extended search or strategic disruption could weaken execution. [#IR-2026-09-28]
- • AI-retrieval launches have not yet been tied to quantified revenue, while larger cloud and legacy-database competitors can pressure pricing. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-01] [#10-K-2026-03-11]
- • Desai's sudden exit immediately before Investor Day creates succession and execution uncertainty despite reaffirmed guidance.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-29
Investor Day tests confidence after CEO exit
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
29
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-7.2
Δ21d
-16.0
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
41
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.4
Δ21d
-11.6
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 29.5 / Value 41.0 / Sentiment 40.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$350.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$250.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$31.4B
Beta
1.39
Shares Out
80.56M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-445.2
P/S (TTM)
14.78
P/FCF (TTM)
98.91
Rev YoY
+25.2%
EPS YoY
-111.7%
Gross Margin
+71.7%
Op Margin
-4.2%
Net Debt
-$2.32B
Current Ratio
4.74
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data