B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MCHX
MarchexANasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Archenia combination could expand Marchex's addressable customer-acquisition spend, improve deal sizes, and support the guided Q3 revenue and EBITDA step-up if early pilots become recurring deployments.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Archenia integration and cross-selling may not translate into recurring revenue.
Momentum
73
Value
35
Sentiment
96
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.00 · Bull $3.00 · Bear $1.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.00
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -
Value35 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment96 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Archenia integration and cross-selling may not translate into recurring revenue.
- • Customer concentration is high, with the top 100 customers representing approximately 90% of revenue.
- • The thesis depends on integrating Archenia and converting pilots across a concentrated customer base.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-08
Q3 2026 execution against company outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
73
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
96
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 72.5 / Value 34.7 / Sentiment 95.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$2.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$80.22M
Beta
2.03
Shares Out
44.32M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-15.2
P/S (TTM)
1.60
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-36.13
Rev YoY
-5.6%
EPS YoY
-611.1%
Gross Margin
+61.2%
Op Margin
-8.3%
Net Debt
-$9.22M
Current Ratio
2.21
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data