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MCHX

MarchexB
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Archenia combination could increase Marchex's addressable customer-acquisition spending, expand existing accounts and add operating leverage. Pro forma combined revenue rose from $14.4 million in Q1 to $15.5 million in Q2, and Q3 guidance implies further sequential progress [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Approximately 90% of revenue is attributed to the top 100 customers, creating concentration and renewal risk.
Momentum
73
Value
34
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.50 · Bull $2.20 · Bear $0.80Analysis 2026-09-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.00
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -
Value34 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Approximately 90% of revenue is attributed to the top 100 customers, creating concentration and renewal risk.
  • • Archenia integration and pilot-conversion execution remain unproven.
  • • Standalone Q2 revenue declined year over year, customer concentration is high, and the strategy depends on converting pilots into recurring enterprise deployments.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-08

Q3 outlook execution

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
73
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
34
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
76
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 72.5 / Value 34.4 / Sentiment 75.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$0.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$57.2M
Beta
2.03
Shares Out
44.34M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-10.8
P/S (TTM)
1.60
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-25.75
Rev YoY
-5.6%
EPS YoY
-611.1%
Gross Margin
+61.2%
Op Margin
-8.3%
Net Debt
-$9.22M
Current Ratio
2.21
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data