B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
MCFT
Mastercraft BoatANasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes above-consensus seasonality, successful new-model introductions, and margin recovery that pushes consensus toward the high-$20s; that scenario supports the bull target near the current analyst high.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +25.1.
What can break
Cyclical discretionary demand drop/weak spring season
Momentum
43
Value
47
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.40 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2026-02-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-09-10 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $26.75
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d -13.7
Value47 · Δ7d -3.8
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +25.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +25.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cyclical discretionary demand drop/weak spring season
- • Dealer inventory destocking or weaker retail financing availability
- • Bear case assumes a weak spring selling season, inventory destocking at dealers, or margin contraction from input-cost pressure — outcomes that could drive the shares toward mid-to-high teens.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-11
Analyst target revisions and coverage updates
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
43
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.7
Δ21d
-12.5
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
-5.8
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+25.1
Δ21d
+33.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 43.1 / Value 46.5 / Sentiment 82.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-10. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$23.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-09-10
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-09-10
Market Cap
$613.57M
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
24.44M
P/E (TTM)
23.8
P/S (TTM)
1.10
P/FCF (TTM)
19.39
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
-120.2%
Gross Margin
+22.5%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
-$79.44M
Current Ratio
1.83
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data