B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MBUU
Malibu BoatsBNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q4 acceleration, better-than-expected operating execution, Saxdor contribution, refinancing through 2031, and $70 million fiscal 2027 repurchase authorization support a cautiously constructive view. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.5.
What can break
Discretionary marine demand and payment-buyer pressure may delay a broad recovery.
Momentum
51
Value
51
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.00 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.63
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d -13.9
Value51 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +6.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Discretionary marine demand and payment-buyer pressure may delay a broad recovery.
- • Full-year GAAP net income and adjusted EBITDA declined materially despite revenue growth.
- • The annual earnings base remains weak, consumer demand recovery is unconfirmed, and Saxdor execution and domestic production introduce integration risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-27
Strong Q4 FY26 operating rebound
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
51
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.9
Δ21d
-5.5
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-11.8
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.5
Δ21d
+23.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 50.9 / Value 51.4 / Sentiment 76.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-27
Market Cap
$577.53M
Beta
1.22
Shares Out
19.64M
P/E (TTM)
30.1
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
11.87
Rev YoY
+3.1%
EPS YoY
-119.3%
Gross Margin
+14.4%
Op Margin
+0.1%
Net Debt
-$11.68M
Current Ratio
1.31
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data