B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MBUU
Malibu BoatsANasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q4 beat, stronger FY2027 guidance, improving channel discipline, Saxdor expansion, and refinancing through 2031 support a recovery case. Benchmark reportedly maintained a Buy rating and $40 target after the print.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.
What can break
Coverage is low, the peer set is loose, and analyst target-count and revision data are incomplete.
Momentum
56
Value
51
Sentiment
89
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $32.50 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-09-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.63
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d -2.7
Value51 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment89 · Δ7d +3.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Coverage is low, the peer set is loose, and analyst target-count and revision data are incomplete.
- • FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 8.1% from 9.3%, while GAAP net income fell sharply amid acquisition and integration costs.
- • The negative post-print price reaction suggests the market remains concerned about weak underlying cyclicality, integration costs, margin recovery, and whether Saxdor growth offsets legacy demand pressure.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-27
Q4 FY2026 beat and FY2027 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
+4.9
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-11.8
Sentiment
89
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+14.9
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 55.7 / Value 51.4 / Sentiment 89.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$32.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-27
Market Cap
$577.53M
Beta
1.22
Shares Out
19.64M
P/E (TTM)
30.1
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
11.87
Rev YoY
+3.1%
EPS YoY
-119.3%
Gross Margin
+14.4%
Op Margin
+0.1%
Net Debt
-$11.68M
Current Ratio
1.31
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data