B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MBUU
Malibu BoatsANasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q4 revenue of $295.5 million exceeded the $263.0 million consensus cited in the stored Zacks report, while management reported stronger Cobalt and Saltwater volumes, favorable mix and Saxdor contribution. Achieving fiscal 2027 guidance could support a rerating.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 8.1% from 9.3%, and GAAP net income fell sharply. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
Momentum
18
Value
55
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.00 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.86
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d +0.7
Value55 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment75 · Δ7d +2.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 8.1% from 9.3%, and GAAP net income fell sharply. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
- • Management cited macro pressure on payment-sensitive buyers and insufficient evidence of a durable industry recovery. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27]
- • The acquisition accounted for much of Q4 growth, Malibu-brand units declined, and fiscal 2026 GAAP net income fell 88.8% despite higher sales.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29
First domestically built Saxdor boats
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+0.1
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
75
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
-5.8
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 18.3 / Value 54.9 / Sentiment 74.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$433.5M
Beta
1.22
Shares Out
19.68M
P/E (TTM)
30.1
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
11.87
Rev YoY
+3.1%
EPS YoY
-119.3%
Gross Margin
+14.4%
Op Margin
+0.1%
Net Debt
-$11.68M
Current Ratio
1.31
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data