RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

MBIN

Merchants BancorpC
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Sustained loan growth and NIM expansion drive earnings beats and multiple re-rating toward regional highs; catalysts and M&A chatter could push price toward analyst-high levels.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
Analyst downgrades or sector multiple contraction
Momentum
48
Value
57
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $42.64 · Bull $51.17 · Bear $38.38Analysis 2026-02-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $64.00
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d -8.0
Value57 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -1.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst downgrades or sector multiple contraction
  • • Commercial credit deterioration forcing reserve increases
  • • Deposit pressure, higher funding costs, or commercial-credit stress force reserve builds and margin compression, producing double-digit downside toward analyst-low territory.

Catalyst clock

2026-03-31

Analyst target revisions

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
48
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-8.0
Δ21d
-19.2
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-3.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 48.1 / Value 57.2 / Sentiment 49.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$51.17
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
70%
Probability
Target price
$42.64
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$38.38
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.28B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
45.94M
P/E (TTM)
7.9
P/S (TTM)
2.29
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.79
Rev YoY
-3.4%
EPS YoY
+145.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+24.0%
Net Debt
$3.83B
Current Ratio
0.06
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data