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MBIN

Merchants BancorpD
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained loan growth and NIM expansion drive earnings beats and multiple re-rating toward regional highs; catalysts and M&A chatter could push price toward analyst-high levels.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.1.
What can break
Analyst downgrades or sector multiple contraction
Momentum
60
Value
57
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $42.64 · Bull $51.17 · Bear $38.38Analysis 2026-02-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $64.50
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d -11.0
Value57 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment50 · Δ7d -2.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst downgrades or sector multiple contraction
  • • Commercial credit deterioration forcing reserve increases
  • • Deposit pressure, higher funding costs, or commercial-credit stress force reserve builds and margin compression, producing double-digit downside toward analyst-low territory.

Catalyst clock

2026-03-31

Analyst target revisions

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
60
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-11.0
Δ21d
-19.1
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
50
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
+2.9
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 59.6 / Value 56.9 / Sentiment 49.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$51.17
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
70%
Probability
Target price
$42.64
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$38.38
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.51B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
45.94M
P/E (TTM)
7.9
P/S (TTM)
2.29
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.06
Rev YoY
-3.4%
EPS YoY
+145.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+24.0%
Net Debt
$3.83B
Current Ratio
0.06
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data