B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$10.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MBC
MasterBrandCNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The completed American Woodmark combination creates substantial cost-reduction potential: management raised the long-term annual run-rate synergy target above $100 million and had already executed $30 million of annualized actions. Successful integration plus eventual housing-market recovery could produce significant operating leverage [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.5.
What can break
American Woodmark integration could produce disruption, delayed savings, or costs that offset expected synergies.
Momentum
19
Value
54
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.25 · Bull $10.25 · Bear $5.25Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.63
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d +4.2
Value54 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -6.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • American Woodmark integration could produce disruption, delayed savings, or costs that offset expected synergies.
- • Continued weakness in residential cabinet demand could prolong volume deleverage and delay an earnings recovery [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
- • The merger arrived during a pronounced cabinet-demand downturn.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
American Woodmark integration and synergy delivery
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.2
Δ21d
+9.5
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.5
Δ21d
-4.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 19.0 / Value 53.8 / Sentiment 64.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.41B
Beta
-
Shares Out
203.49M
P/E (TTM)
17.7
P/S (TTM)
0.52
P/FCF (TTM)
10.68
Rev YoY
+11.5%
EPS YoY
-229.8%
Gross Margin
+25.6%
Op Margin
-0.6%
Net Debt
$990.7M
Current Ratio
1.76
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data