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MAX

MediaAlphaA
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 revenue beat, broader carrier participation, strong P&C demand, digital advertising migration, and capital returns support continued earnings growth and potential rerating.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.8.
What can break
Gross margin and contribution margin declined year over year in Q2.
Momentum
42
Value
60
Sentiment
81
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.75 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.63
Why
Momentum42 · Δ7d -28.5
Value60 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment81 · Δ7d +12.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Gross margin and contribution margin declined year over year in Q2.
  • • More than 80% of P&C advertising-spend growth since 2021 reportedly came from two carriers, creating concentration risk.
  • • Q3 growth guidance decelerates materially from Q2, margins declined year over year, health is expected to contribute only about 1% of revenue, and advertising-spend growth remains concentrated among a small number of carriers.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29

Q2 beat sets a positive but higher-bar follow-up

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
42
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-28.5
Δ21d
-34.5
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
81
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.8
Δ21d
+17.5
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 42.2 / Value 60.2 / Sentiment 81.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$13.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$777.44M
Beta
1.30
Shares Out
52.98M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
32.2
P/S (TTM)
0.69
P/FCF (TTM)
8.85
Rev YoY
+25.9%
EPS YoY
-290.4%
Gross Margin
+14.5%
Op Margin
+7.1%
Net Debt
$107.91M
Current Ratio
1.29
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data