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MAX

MediaAlphaC
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 26% to $316.9 million and adjusted EBITDA rose to $29.3 million; management attributed marketplace strength to broader carrier demand. Q3 guidance and the full-year free-cash-flow outlook provide measurable tests for a recovery from the $9.45 anchor price [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
Analyst-target coverage and post-earnings revisions are unverified; the peer set is limited.
Momentum
65
Value
60
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.50 · Bull $14.00 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.81
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d +37.0
Value60 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment46 · Δ7d -6.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst-target coverage and post-earnings revisions are unverified; the peer set is limited.
  • • P&C carrier advertising demand or share gains may fall short of Q3 guidance [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
  • • Q2 gross margin fell to 14.3% from 15.0%, and contribution margin fell to 14.9% from 15.8%.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

Q3 P&C execution against company guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
65
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+37.0
Δ21d
+59.4
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-2.8
Sentiment
46
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.1
Δ21d
-32.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 65.5 / Value 60.0 / Sentiment 46.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$721.08M
Beta
1.30
Shares Out
52.98M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
29.9
P/S (TTM)
0.69
P/FCF (TTM)
8.85
Rev YoY
+25.9%
EPS YoY
-290.4%
Gross Margin
+14.5%
Op Margin
+7.1%
Net Debt
$107.91M
Current Ratio
1.29
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data