MAT
MattelCNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
At close
2026-07-21
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 sales growth, unchanged FY2026 guidance, ongoing buybacks, the June 5 movie release, and Mattel163 integration mark the start of a better second-half IP monetization cycle. The packet's sell-side summary implies a mean/median target near $19.33, well above the $15.08 anchor.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
Cash and equivalents fell to $866.0 million at March 31, 2026, operating cash flow was a $23 million use in Q1, and Mattel still carried about $2.33 billion of long-term debt [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Momentum
15
Value
66
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.50 · Bull $19.50 · Bear $12.50
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-21
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-20 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-21 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-21
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-21
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.92
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d -1.4
Value66 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -6.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
15
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
+2.0
Value
66
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
62
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.5
Δ21d
-8.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 14.7 / Value 65.8 / Sentiment 61.6
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-20
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-20
Market Cap
$4.11B
Beta
0.70
Shares Out
290.6M
P/E (TTM)
15.4
P/S (TTM)
1.22
P/FCF (TTM)
13.09
Rev YoY
+4.3%
EPS YoY
-264.7%
Gross Margin
+47.9%
Op Margin
+10.8%
Net Debt
$1.44B
Current Ratio
2.06
As of 2026-07-21 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology