MAT
MattelCNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 sales growth, unchanged FY2026 guidance, ongoing buybacks, the June 5 movie release, and Mattel163 integration mark the start of a better second-half IP monetization cycle. The packet's sell-side summary implies a mean/median target near $19.33, well above the $15.08 anchor.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
Cash and equivalents fell to $866.0 million at March 31, 2026, operating cash flow was a $23 million use in Q1, and Mattel still carried about $2.33 billion of long-term debt [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Momentum
14
Value
66
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.50 · Bull $19.50 · Bear $12.50
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-18
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-18
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.92
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +6.1
Value66 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -11.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
14
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
+2.9
Value
66
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
59
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.9
Δ21d
-3.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 14.0 / Value 66.0 / Sentiment 59.4
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-17
Market Cap
$4.16B
Beta
0.70
Shares Out
290.6M
P/E (TTM)
15.4
P/S (TTM)
1.22
P/FCF (TTM)
13.09
Rev YoY
+4.3%
EPS YoY
-264.7%
Gross Margin
+47.9%
Op Margin
+10.8%
Net Debt
$1.44B
Current Ratio
2.06
As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology