B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MAT
MattelCNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The board-selected successor sustains Mattel's IP strategy while digital games, cost savings and repurchases improve per-share earnings. Q2 management reiterated 2026 guidance, including adjusted EPS of $1.27–$1.39, before the CEO change [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] [#8-K-2026-09-30].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
What can break
2026 guidance and planned savings were reiterated before the leadership announcement; no post-transition revision was supplied.
Momentum
94
Value
61
Sentiment
34
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.50 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.08
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d +2.1
Value61 · Δ7d +1.1
Sentiment34 · Δ7d +4.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • 2026 guidance and planned savings were reiterated before the leadership announcement; no post-transition revision was supplied.
- • CEO handoff may disrupt execution of the IP, licensing and digital strategy [#8-K-2026-09-30].
- • Kreiz's departure adds execution uncertainty while Q2 sales growth failed to protect margins or EPS.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02
CEO transition and strategy continuity
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
94
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
+60.9
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
34
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
-11.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 94.3 / Value 60.8 / Sentiment 34.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.69B
Beta
0.70
Shares Out
285.7M
P/E (TTM)
15.4
P/S (TTM)
1.22
P/FCF (TTM)
13.09
Rev YoY
+10.5%
EPS YoY
-138.4%
Gross Margin
+47.1%
Op Margin
+8.7%
Net Debt
$1.44B
Current Ratio
1.90
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data