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MAR

Marriott InternationalD
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: continued strength in fee revenue, expanding pipeline, and accelerating international RevPAR drive upside toward the analyst high; market assigns premium multiple as growth visibility improves.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Currency fluctuations and international exposure
Momentum
88
Value
44
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $328.00 · Bull $388.50 · Bear $215.00Analysis 2026-02-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $390.84
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +3.8
Value44 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -0.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Currency fluctuations and international exposure
  • • Macroeconomic slowdown reducing discretionary and business travel
  • • Bear case: near-term margin pressure, macro-driven demand softness, or unexpected slowdown in group/international travel compresses multiples and revises targets toward the low end.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-10

Q4 2025 earnings release and guidance (reported)

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
88
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.8
Δ21d
+16.2
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
35
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-13.3
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 88.1 / Value 44.1 / Sentiment 34.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-12. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$388.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$328.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$215.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$101.88B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
260.77M
P/E (TTM)
32.8
P/S (TTM)
3.22
P/FCF (TTM)
68.87
Rev YoY
+4.8%
EPS YoY
+4.3%
Gross Margin
+19.1%
Op Margin
+15.7%
Net Debt
$16.82B
Current Ratio
0.53
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data