B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MAGN
MagneraANYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record Q3 execution, organic volume growth, favorable price-cost spread, Project CORE savings, merger synergies, and reaffirmed free-cash-flow guidance support a cautiously positive operating thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.6.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA guidance is at the lower end of the prior range.
Momentum
22
Value
68
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.50 · Bull $16.50 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-08-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.50
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d +2.9
Value68 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +11.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted EBITDA guidance is at the lower end of the prior range.
- • Demand and volume recovery could weaken, particularly in softer regions.
- • The adjusted EBITDA outlook moved to the lower end of the prior range, while raw-material inflation, product mix, pass-through timing, regional inflation, higher SG&A, and uncertain demand remain material risks.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q3 execution and reaffirmed cash-flow outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
-18.1
Value
68
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.6
Δ21d
+4.3
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 22.4 / Value 67.8 / Sentiment 77.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$429.6M
Beta
1.72
Shares Out
35.8M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.7
P/S (TTM)
0.16
P/FCF (TTM)
14.40
Rev YoY
+2.1%
EPS YoY
+10.2%
Gross Margin
+10.6%
Op Margin
+4.4%
Net Debt
$1.71B
Current Ratio
2.45
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data