B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LXU
LSB IndustriesBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Successful turnarounds, above-nameplate El Dorado production, constructive industrial and fertilizer markets, and CCS optionality could lift earnings into the second half and support a re-rating. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.
What can break
CCS and ammonia-expansion projects carry timing, financing, ownership and execution risk.
Momentum
45
Value
68
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.75 · Bull $14.50 · Bear $8.75Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.50
Why
Momentum45 · Δ7d +18.2
Value68 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +1.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CCS and ammonia-expansion projects carry timing, financing, ownership and execution risk.
- • Nitrogen prices may continue to moderate, limiting the benefit of higher production.
- • Q2 still produced a net loss and diluted EPS loss because of turnaround costs; nitrogen prices have moderated, debt was $441.3 million, and future project execution remains uncertain.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-01
Q2 results support a stronger second half
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
45
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.2
Δ21d
+29.7
Value
68
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+2.5
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
-17.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 45.1 / Value 68.2 / Sentiment 62.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$755.97M
Beta
0.75
Shares Out
72M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
30.7
P/S (TTM)
1.06
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
7.84
Rev YoY
+11.1%
EPS YoY
-304.8%
Gross Margin
+17.3%
Op Margin
+9.5%
Net Debt
$348.91M
Current Ratio
2.43
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data