B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LXU
LSB IndustriesBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose to $53.1 million from $38.3 million a year earlier despite substantial turnaround expense. Sustained plant improvements and eventual carbon-capture earnings could support upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
Ammonia and UAN price normalization may outweigh operating gains.
Momentum
56
Value
67
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.20 · Bull $12.50 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-10-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.70
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d -8.1
Value67 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +0.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Ammonia and UAN price normalization may outweigh operating gains.
- • El Dorado carbon-capture start-up requires EPA Class VI approval, successful execution and tax-credit qualification; cash receipts may lag recognized earnings.
- • Q2 still produced a $6.2 million net loss, while nitrogen pricing has begun to normalize.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-15
Post-turnaround production test
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
56
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-8.1
Δ21d
+16.5
Value
67
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-8.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 55.7 / Value 67.2 / Sentiment 53.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$9.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$800.61M
Beta
0.75
Shares Out
72M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
32.5
P/S (TTM)
1.06
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
8.31
Rev YoY
+11.1%
EPS YoY
-304.8%
Gross Margin
+17.3%
Op Margin
+9.5%
Net Debt
$348.91M
Current Ratio
2.43
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data