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LVWR

LiveWire GroupF
NYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$1.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B
Base case
35%
Probability
Target price
$0.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B-
Bear case
45%
Probability
Target price
$0.08
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-10-31
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-0.8
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+31.3
Score

AI commentary

The packet's positive deterministic prior is outweighed by the subsequently confirmed going-concern warning and guidance withdrawal. Shares closed near $0.90 on October 29 versus $1.60 on October 28, then reached the packet's $0.66 October 30 anchor; much distress is reflected in price, but further equity impairment remains possible. Historical prices No reliable analyst revision or consensus-surprise data was available, and social coverage was absent.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-31
Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact
standard
Confidence
-

AI events

2026-11-09catalystSeptember-quarter 10-Q liquidity detailHigh impact

LiveWire expects to file its September-quarter 10-Q by November 9 with further detail on liquidity and its going-concern assessment. Its October 29 earnings release disclosed $39.9 million of cash, $40.5 million of year-to-date free-cash-flow use, substantial going-concern doubt, and withdrawal of full-year operating-loss guidance. Further detail may sharpen downside risk rather than resolve it. [#8-K-2026-10-29] [#SEC-8K-2026-10-29] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1898795/000189879526000107/lvwrexhibit9919-30x2026.htm

2026-11-30catalystS4 Honcho deliveries and motorcycle demandHigh impact

LiveWire reported first U.S. S4 Honcho Trail deliveries in August and Street deliveries to dealers in October, with initial European deliveries expected in October and November. Q3 electric-motorcycle revenue rose to $2.7 million, but the segment still lost $17.0 million; stronger deliveries would matter only if they improve cash economics. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-29] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1898795/000189879526000107/lvwrexhibit9919-30x2026.htm

2027-01-29eventFinancing or restructuring outcomeHigh impact

A newly formed special restructuring committee is evaluating financing, a sale, recapitalization and other alternatives ahead of a December 2027 debt maturity. A viable transaction could support the shares, but its terms and timing are unknown, and dilution or impairment of existing equity remains possible. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-29] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1898795/000189879526000107/lvwrexhibit9919-30x2026.htm

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo
As of 2026-10-31 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology