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LUV

Southwest AirlinesC
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record third-quarter revenue, 21.6% RASM growth and 5.4% adjusted operating margin show that Southwest's commercial changes are lifting yield despite an $821 million year-over-year fuel-cost increase. A sustained fourth-quarter revenue premium and credible multi-year targets could support upside.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.9.
What can break
Aircraft delivery, retirement and product rollouts carry execution risk; management's longer-term financial targets are not yet available. SEC-furnished earnings release.
Momentum
53
Value
49
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $42.00 · Bull $51.00 · Bear $32.00Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $50.00
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d +16.1
Value49 · Δ7d -1.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -13.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Aircraft delivery, retirement and product rollouts carry execution risk; management's longer-term financial targets are not yet available. SEC-furnished earnings release.
  • • Fourth-quarter CASM-X is forecast to rise 4.0%–4.5%, including a one-point headwind from removing seats to provide extra legroom. SEC-furnished earnings release.
  • • The fuel shock overwhelmed the earnings beat: 2026 adjusted EPS guidance fell to $2.60–$2.85, and Reuters reported that the new midpoint was below the LSEG analyst average of $2.85.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-20

Earnings beat meets a sharply reduced outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+16.1
Δ21d
-7.0
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.9
Δ21d
-12.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 52.9 / Value 49.1 / Sentiment 53.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$21.27B
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
489.6M
P/E (TTM)
65.6
P/S (TTM)
0.80
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-27.67
Rev YoY
+16.4%
EPS YoY
+20.0%
Gross Margin
+18.9%
Op Margin
+4.3%
Net Debt
$2.75B
Current Ratio
0.49
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data