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LPX

Louisiana-PacificD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Siding returns to year-over-year growth in Q3, sustains roughly 25% margins, and demonstrates that pricing and operating improvement can overcome softer volumes and inflation. Strong liquidity provides resilience through the OSB downturn.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.
What can break
Housing and repair/remodel demand sensitivity can amplify earnings volatility across both Siding and OSB.
Momentum
72
Value
44
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $61.00 · Bull $80.00 · Bear $45.00Analysis 2026-09-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $87.79
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d +15.9
Value44 · Δ7d -0.9
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -4.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Housing and repair/remodel demand sensitivity can amplify earnings volatility across both Siding and OSB.
  • • OSB commodity prices and volumes remain weak; Q3 and full-year OSB adjusted EBITDA guidance are losses of approximately $45 million and $120 million, respectively. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell to $79 million, Siding sales declined 4%, and OSB sales fell to $182 million.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-15

Jasper OSB curtailment execution

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+15.9
Δ21d
+24.3
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-2.1
Sentiment
35
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
-17.9
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 71.9 / Value 43.6 / Sentiment 35.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.16B
Beta
1.81
Shares Out
69.92M
P/E (TTM)
27.3
P/S (TTM)
2.07
P/FCF (TTM)
87.20
Rev YoY
-12.1%
EPS YoY
-51.9%
Gross Margin
+18.0%
Op Margin
+4.5%
Net Debt
$87M
Current Ratio
3.22
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data