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LPX

Louisiana-PacificA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that the earnings miss-vs-prior-year was already known by the market, while the company still delivered results at or above guided ranges, held roughly $900 million of liquidity, and kept full-year EBITDA guidance intact despite a volatile housing and OSB backdrop. The median target in the packet remains well above the May 7 anchor price, but analyst-count visibility is incomplete.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.9.
What can break
OSB remains the biggest swing factor: Q2 and FY2026 OSB EBITDA guidance assumes Random Lengths prices stay at May 1, 2026 levels, so further price erosion would pressure earnings. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
Momentum
29
Value
46
Sentiment
93
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $95.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $92.23
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d -7.3
Value46 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment93 · Δ7d +10.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • OSB remains the biggest swing factor: Q2 and FY2026 OSB EBITDA guidance assumes Random Lengths prices stay at May 1, 2026 levels, so further price erosion would pressure earnings. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
  • • Q1 cash used in operations was $38 million, inventories rose to $416 million from $363 million at year-end, and 2026 capex is still expected near $390 million, limiting flexibility if the downturn lasts longer. [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
  • • The bear case is that the earnings beat was low quality for equity holders because Siding volumes fell 18%, OSB sales fell 37%, cash from operations was negative in Q1, and the FY outlook still relies on OSB prices not weakening from May 1 levels.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-06

Q1 earnings reset the setup but preserved liquidity and full-year guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
29
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.3
Δ21d
+4.0
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-6.9
Sentiment
93
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.9
Δ21d
+11.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 28.9 / Value 45.8 / Sentiment 92.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.05B
Beta
1.81
Shares Out
69.92M
P/E (TTM)
27.3
P/S (TTM)
2.07
P/FCF (TTM)
87.20
Rev YoY
-12.1%
EPS YoY
-51.9%
Gross Margin
+18.0%
Op Margin
+4.5%
Net Debt
$87M
Current Ratio
3.22
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data