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LPLA

LPL FinancialB
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The official Q2 company filing supports a constructive view through record adjusted EPS, strong client-asset growth, improved recruiting, lower Core G&A guidance, Commonwealth's higher EBITDA estimate, and expanded repurchase capacity. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
What can break
Commonwealth asset retention may remain below the approximately 90% target or conversion may be delayed.
Momentum
37
Value
50
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $390.00 · Bull $430.00 · Bear $310.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $411.31
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -11.2
Value50 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d -0.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Commonwealth asset retention may remain below the approximately 90% target or conversion may be delayed.
  • • Integration, operating-cost, and execution risk could offset the expected Commonwealth EBITDA contribution.
  • • The Commonwealth conversion remains execution-sensitive: associated retention was described in stored earnings context as mid-80% versus a 90% target.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · AMC

Q2 operating momentum and lower 2026 Core G&A outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
37
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.2
Δ21d
+2.7
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
66
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-12.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 36.5 / Value 50.4 / Sentiment 66.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$430.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$390.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$310.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$24.98B
Beta
0.58
Shares Out
78.74M
P/E (TTM)
34.1
P/S (TTM)
1.90
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-25.00
Rev YoY
+35.2%
EPS YoY
+39.4%
Gross Margin
+28.3%
Op Margin
+12.8%
Net Debt
$4.88B
Current Ratio
2.07
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data