B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LOCO
El Pollo LocoBNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best read-through from the print is that LOCO converted stronger sales into a cleaner margin and earnings beat, then raised FY2026 comp and EBITDA guidance. Secondary coverage also indicates at least one supportive analyst action around the period, with Benchmark previously raising its target to $16 from $14, but broad T+3 revision depth still looks limited.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.
What can break
Company-operated transactions declined 0.3% in Q1 even as average check rose 5.7%, leaving risk that price/mix carries more of the comp than traffic.
Momentum
78
Value
63
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.58
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d +0.3
Value63 · Δ7d +1.9
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +13.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Company-operated transactions declined 0.3% in Q1 even as average check rose 5.7%, leaving risk that price/mix carries more of the comp than traffic.
- • Liquidity is still tight relative to the growth plan: cash was $3.9M at April 1, 2026, debt was $44.0M, and outstanding borrowings were $46.0M as of May 7, 2026.
- • The quarter was not purely traffic-led: company-operated average check rose 5.7% while transactions slipped 0.3%, so sustaining the story requires continued product and loyalty traction rather than just price.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Q1 beat with raised FY2026 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
78
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+12.8
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.1
Δ21d
-8.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 78.1 / Value 62.6 / Sentiment 52.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$438.84M
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
30.43M
P/E (TTM)
11.9
P/S (TTM)
0.66
P/FCF (TTM)
14.68
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
+75.3%
Gross Margin
+22.0%
Op Margin
+9.8%
Net Debt
$234.78M
Current Ratio
0.41
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data