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LOCO

El Pollo LocoC
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best read-through from the print is that LOCO converted stronger sales into a cleaner margin and earnings beat, then raised FY2026 comp and EBITDA guidance. Secondary coverage also indicates at least one supportive analyst action around the period, with Benchmark previously raising its target to $16 from $14, but broad T+3 revision depth still looks limited.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.6.
What can break
Company-operated transactions declined 0.3% in Q1 even as average check rose 5.7%, leaving risk that price/mix carries more of the comp than traffic.
Momentum
48
Value
63
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.30
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d +12.4
Value63 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +4.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Company-operated transactions declined 0.3% in Q1 even as average check rose 5.7%, leaving risk that price/mix carries more of the comp than traffic.
  • • Liquidity is still tight relative to the growth plan: cash was $3.9M at April 1, 2026, debt was $44.0M, and outstanding borrowings were $46.0M as of May 7, 2026.
  • • The quarter was not purely traffic-led: company-operated average check rose 5.7% while transactions slipped 0.3%, so sustaining the story requires continued product and loyalty traction rather than just price.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-07

Q1 beat with raised FY2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.4
Δ21d
-2.7
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+4.4
Sentiment
54
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.6
Δ21d
+1.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 47.9 / Value 63.0 / Sentiment 54.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$470.49M
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
30.43M
P/E (TTM)
11.9
P/S (TTM)
0.66
P/FCF (TTM)
14.68
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
+75.3%
Gross Margin
+22.0%
Op Margin
+9.8%
Net Debt
$234.78M
Current Ratio
0.41
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data