LMT

Lockheed MartinC

NYSE / Capital Goods

At close

2026-07-18

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment AI

B+

Bull case

20%

Probability

Target price

$664.00

+30.5% vs current

Most likely

Base case

60%

Probability

Target price

$560.41

+10.1% vs current

B-

Bear case

20%

Probability

Target price

$430.00

-15.5% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-01-24

AI commentary

Market and analyst tone is mixed-to-cautious: consensus targets cluster in the mid-$500s while some firms lift to the mid-$600s [#SERP-1][#SERP-6]. Recent press (NGSRI flight test, F-35 delivery record) supports program momentum but much of this is public and partially priced [#LM-2026-01-13][#LM-2026-01-07]. Analysts are split between upside from awards and downside from budget/timing risks.

RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2026-01-24

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2025-03-24catalystPAC-3 MSE record production momentumMedium impact

Lockheed reported a record production year for PAC-3 MSE (Mar 24, 2025); continued missile-defense volume/OGAs could translate to sustained revenue over multiple years [#LM-2025-03-24].

2026-01-07eventF-35 delivery record publishedMedium impact

Lockheed announced a record year of F-35 deliveries for 2025 (press release 2026-01-07) — supports backlog/sustainment revenue but is largely public and partly priced [#LM-2026-01-07].

2026-01-13eventNGSRI first flight test completedMedium impact

Lockheed completed the first flight test of the Next-Generation Strike and Interceptor (NGSRI) system on 2026-01-13; successful test advances maturation and potential follow-on contracts [#LM-2026-01-13].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-01-24 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology