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LMND

LemonadeB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained top-line growth, margin expansion via scale and improved loss ratios, and market multiple re-rating toward growth-insurer peers could push price toward the high analyst target.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.3.
What can break
Reduced reinsurance capacity or higher reinsurance pricing
Momentum
8
Value
38
Sentiment
84
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $69.31 · Bull $102.90 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-01-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $59.22
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d -1.8
Value38 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment84 · Δ7d +3.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Reduced reinsurance capacity or higher reinsurance pricing
  • • Regulatory scrutiny over algorithmic underwriting/data use
  • • Execution risks (higher CAC, adverse loss trends, reinsurance cost increases) leading to downward revisions that send the stock toward low analyst targets.

Catalyst clock

No dated catalyst is available.

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
8
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
+3.3
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
84
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
-2.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 7.7 / Value 38.4 / Sentiment 84.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$102.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$69.31
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.87B
Beta
2.02
Shares Out
77.4M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-22.3
P/S (TTM)
8.72
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
457.00
Rev YoY
+104.9%
EPS YoY
-5.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-13.8%
Net Debt
-$214.7M
Current Ratio
2.42
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data