B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LKQ
LKQCNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
North American growth has turned positive, alternative-parts utilization is at a record level, Specialty remains resilient, and ERP recovery plus cost reductions could restore profitability. The strategic review provides optionality but has no defined outcome.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.2.
What can break
First-half free cash flow was negative $36 million while total debt was $4.0 billion. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
62
Value
63
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.50 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.07
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d +18.2
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +5.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • First-half free cash flow was negative $36 million while total debt was $4.0 billion. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
- • German ERP recovery may take longer or remain costly.
- • The earnings reset exposes execution risk in Europe, weak UK and Benelux demand, margin pressure, negative first-half free cash flow, and $4.0 billion of debt at 2.8x leverage.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
Q2 earnings miss and mixed outlook reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
62
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.2
Δ21d
+43.1
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-3.9
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.2
Δ21d
+3.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 62.2 / Value 63.0 / Sentiment 56.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.44B
Beta
0.90
Shares Out
253M
P/E (TTM)
11.6
P/S (TTM)
0.57
P/FCF (TTM)
19.38
Rev YoY
-3.0%
EPS YoY
-27.6%
Gross Margin
+35.7%
Op Margin
+7.2%
Net Debt
$4.74B
Current Ratio
1.58
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data