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LumentumD
Nasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue reached $1.01 billion versus $808.4 million in Q3, and the company guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to a $1.25 billion midpoint. OCS, 1.6T cloud modules and emerging in-rack optics could sustain growth if orders convert to shipments and margins hold.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-29.
What can break
A miss against the company's fiscal Q1 2027 revenue or non-GAAP margin ranges could challenge the premium valuation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11]
Momentum
60
Value
44
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $820.00 · Bull $1,050.00 · Bear $500.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
47 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-11-05 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-30 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $1,179.23
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d -27.2
Value44 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment50 · Δ7d -40.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
47Non-qualifying2026-11-05 amc
View setup

Three-month upward revisions to Q1 FY2027 EPS and revenue, alongside Lumentum’s stated demand momentum and backlog, are constructive; however, the latest available session closed in the lower part of its range and checked data do not establish the required strong close, 1.5x volume accumulation, sector tape, or adequate red-flag clearance.

Screen as of 2026-10-30. Window 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-29.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 47 / non-qualifying.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A miss against the company's fiscal Q1 2027 revenue or non-GAAP margin ranges could challenge the premium valuation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11]
  • • NVIDIA names Lumentum among current competitors for networking products that include optical modules; this establishes product-scope competitive overlap, not a supply or customer relationship. The source was published February 25, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm [#REL-f9d955b1-2fee-416e-b9c6-5dd45c06edf1]
  • • The product ramps remain execution-dependent.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05 · AMC

Test of fiscal Q1 2027 guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
60
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-27.2
Δ21d
-29.3
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-40.6
Δ21d
-11.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 60.4 / Value 43.6 / Sentiment 49.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1,050.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$820.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$83.29B
Beta
1.51
Shares Out
90.58M
P/E (TTM)
238.7
P/S (TTM)
13.74
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
270.56
Rev YoY
+109.3%
EPS YoY
-2957.5%
Gross Margin
+39.7%
Op Margin
+17.9%
Net Debt
-$1.07B
Current Ratio
1.68
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data