B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1,050.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LITE
LumentumCNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue reached $1.01 billion versus $808.4 million in Q3, and the company guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to a $1.25 billion midpoint. OCS, 1.6T cloud modules and emerging in-rack optics could sustain growth if orders convert to shipments and margins hold.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -25.0.
What can break
A miss against the company's fiscal Q1 2027 revenue or non-GAAP margin ranges could challenge the premium valuation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11]
Momentum
88
Value
44
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $820.00 · Bull $1,050.00 · Bear $500.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $1,182.03
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -0.4
Value44 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -25.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -25.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A miss against the company's fiscal Q1 2027 revenue or non-GAAP margin ranges could challenge the premium valuation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11]
- • NVIDIA names Lumentum among current competitors for networking products that include optical modules; this establishes product-scope competitive overlap, not a supply or customer relationship. The source was published February 25, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm [#REL-f9d955b1-2fee-416e-b9c6-5dd45c06edf1]
- • The product ramps remain execution-dependent.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
Test of fiscal Q1 2027 guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-3.1
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-25.0
Δ21d
-1.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 88.0 / Value 43.7 / Sentiment 58.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$820.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$68.5B
Beta
1.51
Shares Out
90.58M
P/E (TTM)
238.7
P/S (TTM)
13.74
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
222.49
Rev YoY
+109.3%
EPS YoY
-2957.5%
Gross Margin
+39.7%
Op Margin
+17.9%
Net Debt
-$1.07B
Current Ratio
1.68
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data