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LION

Lionsgate StudiosB
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q1 revenue rose 48% year over year to $776.6 million, Motion Picture profit reached a first-quarter record $105 million, and operating cash flow was $54 million. Sustained film performance, television deliveries and backlog conversion would strengthen the case for upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.
What can break
Despite improvement, leverage was 4.3 times trailing adjusted OIBDA at Q1, leaving downside if cash generation weakens. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
59
Value
61
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.50 · Bull $16.50 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-10-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.17
Why
Momentum59 · Δ7d +22.9
Value61 · Δ7d -0.9
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -19.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Despite improvement, leverage was 4.3 times trailing adjusted OIBDA at Q1, leaving downside if cash generation weakens. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Film results may be slate-driven: Q1 Motion Picture revenue more than doubled, creating a demanding comparison for subsequent quarters. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Q1 still recorded a $28.8 million attributable net loss from continuing operations; television profit declined, and leverage remained 4.3 times trailing adjusted OIBDA.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05

Fiscal Q2 results on November 5

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
59
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+22.9
Δ21d
+19.6
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.6
Δ21d
-27.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 59.3 / Value 60.9 / Sentiment 55.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-20. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$3.61B
Beta
-0.15
Shares Out
297.56M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-17.4
P/S (TTM)
0.93
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
21.01
Rev YoY
+47.7%
EPS YoY
-75.0%
Gross Margin
+38.9%
Op Margin
+6.3%
Net Debt
$3.77B
Current Ratio
0.44
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data