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LI

Li AutoB
Nasdaq / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
August deliveries rose to 37,679 from 30,468 in July, while Q2 vehicle margin improved sequentially. Meeting Q3 guidance and sustaining demand for the new BEVs could support recovery.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.2.
What can break
New BEV launches could add costs without sufficient incremental demand or favorable mix.
Momentum
56
Value
57
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.97
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d +25.7
Value57 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -2.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • New BEV launches could add costs without sufficient incremental demand or favorable mix.
  • • No verified current analyst-revision set or model-level post-launch sales data is available.
  • • Q2 deliveries fell 11.5% year over year, vehicle margin fell from 19.4% to 9.4%, and Li Auto recorded a RMB1.7 billion net loss.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-01

September deliveries test Q3 guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+25.7
Δ21d
+33.0
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-15.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 55.8 / Value 57.5 / Sentiment 60.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$11.36B
Beta
0.57
Shares Out
814.38M
P/E (TTM)
27.9
P/S (TTM)
1.00
P/FCF (TTM)
9.29
Rev YoY
-6.8%
EPS YoY
-490.1%
Gross Margin
+15.9%
Op Margin
-3.9%
Net Debt
-$9.52B
Current Ratio
1.88
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data